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Trade Flow Analysis Workshop

2006
The ECA Hub and COMESA jointly held the kick-off workshop for an activity on Trade Flow Analysis (TFA) in Lusaka over October 26-28.

The first step in the analysis has already been conducted at the sectoral level using data for 2005. Across the member States, the six-digit sectors in which exports outside COMESA from a given member State are significant and similar in size to total COMESA imports from outside COMESA have been identified. At the sectoral level, a number of targets of opportunity for increases in intra-COMESA trade have come to light; these include, for example, Zambian electric conductors and steatite/talc, Zimbabwean wooden furniture and door frames, cotton from both of these countries, and a number of apparel items from Madagascar and Malawi.

The next step is to identify the firms that export such products outside COMESA and survey them as to why they do not sell their production within COMESA. In addition, the firms that import these same products from outside COMESA will be surveyed to ascertain why they have not been sourcing these products within COMESA. The outcomes of the study will include a major policy study containing concrete steps at national and regional levels to facilitate an increase in intra-COMESA trade, as well as a directory of the leading firms engaging in extra-COMESA trade. Both deliverables will be ready for presentation to the next meeting of the Trade and Customs Committee in Bujumbura in March or April 2007.

The workshop brought together consultants from ten COMESA member States - namely, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe - to discuss and refine the methodology and to jointly agree with them on the exporting sectors to be covered from their countries. Since the workshop, the relevant importing sectors for each country have also been selected and provided to the consultants.

COMESA Senior Management, appreciating the innovative nature of the study and its potential to increase intra-COMESA trade, has decided to use funding from other donors to include the remaining nine member States in the study. Of particular importance in this context is Libya, a new member of COMESA and its Free Trade Area. The relatively large and prosperous Libyan market remains terra incognita for most COMESA exporters and the inclusion of Libya in the study (from the import side) is especially promising with respect to increasing intra-COMESA trade.

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