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REPORTS

IMPACT of the END of MFA QUOTAS on COMESA's
TEXTILE and APPAREL EXPORTS UNDER AGOA

Can the Sub-Saharan African Textile and Apparel Industry Survive and Grow in the Post-MFA World?

BY MANCHESTER TRADE TEAM: STEPHEN LANDE, MICHAEL R GALE, RAJEEV ARORA, NAVDEEP SODHI
MARCH 2005
 
DOWNLOAD PDF (1.67MB)
Report Contents
Scope of Work
Executive Summary
Policy Issues Governing World Trade in Textiles & Apparel
Implications of the Phaseout of the MFA
SCOPE OF WORK

The purpose of this report is to analyze the post-Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA) environment for the textile and apparel sectors in light of the recently extended African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in reference to Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) members with particular emphasis on Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius and Uganda.

This study reviews the ramifications for current and potential textile and apparel producers within these countries. The paper will suggest steps for the survival and growth of the COMESA textile and apparel industry.

This project will be conducted in two phases. Phase One provides a comprehensive report on the textile and apparel industry in these five countries. Phase Two will focus on the dissemination of the report through; inter alia, workshops with key stakeholders. Phase Two will be designed and finalized immediately after the completion of Phase One.

This analysis takes place in the context of the most climatic event affecting trade in textiles and apparel over the past fifty years – the termination of textile and apparel quotas on January 1, 2005. The paper analyzes five issues:

  • Global impact of the new trade regimes to replace the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC);

  • Current AGOA provisions and countries performance under these provisions;

  • Impact on the five countries’ competitiveness in the post-MFA world. The study will look specifically on the impact of MFA termination on prospects for textile and apparel investment under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

  • Comparison of export prices and costs of production in the COMESA countries compared to other countries. This aspect of the study focuses on such determinants of competitiveness as –

    • Level of efficiency and productivity of labor and machines;

    • Satisfaction of quality standards;

    • Labor standards and compliance with international standards;

    • Competence of management and level of awareness of international competition;

    • Existing laws and facilities to boost export

  • Suggested measures to be taken by the COMESA Secretariat, national governments, the U.S. Government and other donor entities to attract and expand investment in the textile and apparel sectors. Special focus is paid to steps countries can take to improve their enabling environment.

The time between completion of the draft and actual publication and distribution has seen publications of a number of additional studies and a number of devilments in the post MFAworld. We thus have included an update section at the beginning of the study.

February 22, 2004: UPDATE OF STUDY OF TEXTILE AND APPAREL INDUSTRY IN SELECT COMESA COUNTRIES IN POST- MFA ERA

In the ensuing six weeks since the submission of the “Study on the Impact of the End of MFA Quotas on AGOA Textile Exports from Select COMESA Countries,” uncertainty among COMESA AGOA apparel manufacturers intensified in light of unanswered questions about the post-MFA situation. The sections on textiles and apparel in the International Trade Commission’s (ITC) “Fifth Annual Report on U.S. Trade and with Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)” issued on January 13, 2005 confirmed a number of the conclusions in the impact study, but also provided new insights on the impact of the elimination of quotas. Finally, the press has contained many insightful articles on the post-MFA world.

We have prepared this addendum to review these factors to assure that the “Impact Study” does not lose its timeliness since the drafting of the paper.

Summary

It will be many months before one will be able to make any definitive determination on the impact of the end of the MFA on the COMESA countries visited in the study. Many buyers are simply waiting to see what the post-MFA trade regimes will be before significantly changing current buying patterns.

The future of SSA exports vs. a vs. China will be determined in major part by the extent to which Chinese exports are subject to safeguards in the United States. Decisions on whether to impose such safeguards are still one to three months away2. China is imposing an export tax but, unfortunately, it is applies at such a low level (about 2 to 4 US cents per unit) as to be ineffective in limiting exports from China to the United States.

Other uncertainties revolve around whether and if so, the level of any revaluation of the Chinese currency, price movements in other suppliers, particularly in Bangladesh, CBI countries, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Thailand, the availability of competitively priced yarns and fabrics to SSA clothing manufacturers and if and when the quantity of Sub-Saharan African apparel incorporating third country yarns and fabrics eligible for duty-free treatment is halved in 2006 and zeroed out in 2007. We also expect many suppliers to try to move up to higher priced products leaving room for Sub-Saharan African exports at the lower end of the price scale. Steps taken to improve the efficiency of production in SSA will also influence the final impact of the elimination of quotas. These continuing uncertainties make predictions of gloom and doom premature.

A concrete positive sign is that at least through the end of 2004, the COMESA countries visited have been able to maintain market share and in fact increase market share vis-à-vis the largest AGOA exporter -- Lesotho. Even Mauritius has been successful in moderating a decline in exports to the United States by introducing measures increasing that the share of its exports that can enter under duty-free provisions of AGOA.

US retailers and other importers have adopted a wait and see attitude and have not significantly changed their sourcing patterns—a situation is expected to continue through at least June.

However, there have been negative reports in late 2004 and in early 2005 about plant closures and job layoffs. In Kenya, there were reports that 5 plants employing 8,000 workers had laid off workers. In addition, the recently released 2005 ITC study on Trade and Investment in Africa, predicts that Madagascar and Kenya will be among the countries losing market share in the post-MFA world. The 2005 ITC report highlights structural challenges facing AGOA suppliers.

The report does document that with the exception of Indonesia, labor costs are lower in the apparel sector of Madagascar and Kenya than in any other apparel exporter to the United States. However, this advantage is offset by low productivity in SSA. This appears to reinforce the paper’s conclusion that there is no more important step that COMESA countries can take than to improve the productivity of sewing machine operators, improve middle management and introduce system engineers to improve the operation of textile plants. In recent studies, one has identified the high costs of inland transportation.

An additional measure being considered in some of the countries visited is governmental subsidization to defray high costs for power and other infrastructure externalities. Also, there is consideration of special facilities for working capital and short-term financing.

Various trade initiatives benefiting non-AGOA beneficiaries could further undermine AGOA benefits. Duty-free privileges for apparel incorporating third country fabrics were extended to Egypt (a COMESA member but non-AGOA beneficiary). Egypt can now ship unlimited amounts of such garments from three specified areas (Qualified Investment Zones (QIZs)) provided the apparel incorporates required but minimal amounts of Israeli and Egyptian content.

The termination of such duty-free treatment for apparel containing third country fabric might have to be reevaluated. However any extension of the third-country fabric/yarn provision must be done so in the context of investment promotion or other forms of incentives for the production of Sub-Saharan African yarns and fabrics to be incorporated in African apparel exports to the United States.

The Major Emotion Prevailing in the Apparel Industry in the Countries Visited Is Uncertainty.

The uncertainty is caused by a number of factors. The most pressing is continuing delays in the decision on whether to impose safeguards on China, and if applied, at what level and on which products. It will be at least 30-90 days before a decision is made.

The US industry had initially filed in November and December petitions to the Department of Commerce requesting that the United States Government implement at the beginning of 2005 safeguards in a number of categories due to the threat of potentially disruptive surges from China in the post-MFA world. The categories in the petitions included woven trousers and knit shirts—the major exports from COMESA suppliers.

An injunction issued by the US Court of International Trade barred the Department of Commerce (Committee for Implementation of Textile Agreements--CITA) from promulgating safeguards on Chinese imports based on allegations of “threat” as opposed to actual disruption. Importers had argued that US legislation based on WTO commitments require CITA to find actual disruption, not only threat. It will take at least until April for any action to be taken against China. It will take at least that long to collect data on actual imports and for CITA to consider whether the data justifies imposition of quantitative restrictions on China.

The impact study mentioned the possibility that China might limit its own exports of low priced apparel thereby providing a breathing space for AGOA. It is now confirmed that China is implementing a special export tax on six different categories of products including products that also are produced in COMESA LDC suppliers -- woven trousers and knit shirts. The export tax is a flat fee that should discourage low price exports from China that are in price ranges currently being shipped from the LDCs. However, it is being applied currently at such a low level ($0.2 to $0.4 per piece) as to have no impact on trade and is considered to be ineffective window dressing by Sub-Saharan African producers and their customers.

There also was speculation that China might implement a minimum export price below which products cannot be shipped in a number of categories including those exported from the visited COMESA companies. This would serve as an inducement for Chinese exporters to move into higher niche exports leaving more basic apparel open to African exporters. However, no action has yet been taken on this proposal as of the now.

Other uncertainties revolve around unresolved efforts to revalue the Chinese Renminbi, uncertain price movements in Asian and other competitive suppliers and the absence of alternative competitively priced yarns and fabrics to replace third country yarns and fabrics when AGOA third country provisions are halved in two years and completely removed the following year. There is concern that Asian producers currently operating in select COMESA countries will transfer production back to Asia.

Mixed Developments in AGOA Apparel Exports in Countries Visited

Although mixed, initial soundings are not good. Kenya has reported five factories closings with a layoff of 8,000 workers. The East African Standard has been full of gloom and doom articles bemoaning the competitive threat facing Kenyan exports. The paper estimated that 25,000 employees working in 37 textile-manufacturing firms might lose their jobs during the first post MFA year. This follows reports of more serious plant closings and layoffs in Southern Africa, specifically Swaziland and Lesotho.

However, there are some positive indications as well. Investors in Madagascar are predicting 10 percent growth in 2004. A number of Kenyan producers have visited with Hub personnel and indicated that business was going on as usual.
The factories that closed in Kenya were not state of the art. They lacked marketing facilities of more sophisticated operations. These factories did not rely on direct orders, but on overflow orders from other companies for cutting and manufacturing. These firms also suffered from high production costs and insufficient working capital.

Visited COMESA LDCs Continued to Do Well through the End of 2004

The most recent statistics for the visited COMESA countries do not show any drop-off in exports. The last three months of 2004 corresponding to the first three month of AGOA year 2005 was not gloom and doom as predicted by elements in the East African press. For the five countries visited in the study, there were different degrees of good news. The four LDCs visited Kenya, Madagascar, Uganda and Ethiopia -- all continued to grow their exports over the previous year. Even though Mauritius, the only non-LDC visited, continued to experience overall export declines, there was positive growth in categories eligible for AGOA duty-free treatment.

During this last quarter of 2004, Madagascar and Kenya exported 19.2 million and 18.9 million SME respectively. A simple projection of the three-month total to a full year shows that both countries would export about 76 million SME each for the fifth AGOA year ending September 30, 2005 if they continued at the current pace. During the previous year, exports in these categories amounted to 61 million and 62 million SME. This would translate into growth of 25 percent for each country if growth continued at the same pace until the end of AGOA Year 5 on September 30, 2005. As recently as early February, investors in Madagascar were still expecting growth of more than ten percent.

Uganda and Ethiopia, starting from a much lower base, also continued to grow in the apparel sector. During the three-month period between October-December, 2004, Uganda exported 389,000 SME, which is at a rate of 1.6 million SME for the year. This would compare to 1.3 million for all of AGOA Year 4 or a growth of about 233 percent. Ethiopia also appeared in statistics with exports of apparel amounting to 516,000 SME, which can be projected to about 2.1 million SME for the year. This would compare to 1.7 million SME in AGOA Year 4 or a projected growth of 24 percent. We would remind you however, that Ethiopia is focusing on textile mill production.

The two largest LDC exporters visited, Madagascar and Kenya, remained virtually tied for second place among AGOA supplier. However, they reduced the lead of front-runner Lesotho. In AGOA year 4, Lesotho accounted for 34 percent compared to 20 and 19 percent for Kenya and Madagascar respectively. For the first three months of AGOA year 5, Madagascar and Kenya were tied for second with about 21 percent each compared to Lesotho’s 29 percent share

The lagging market share of Lesotho can be traced to a number of factors of which the most important is the appreciation of the rand--the Lesotho currency (the maloti) is pegged to it. The ITC report contained industry speculation that if the South African rand continues to strengthen against the dollar, many investors will pull out of Lesotho.

In addition, industry sources at a Chinese owned mill in Lesotho claimed that their salary costs, even exclusive of productivity differences, are almost three times greater than what they would be at comparable facilities in China. Six company owners who closed shop last year clearly believed that the low wages, economies of scale and efficient engineering of factories in China and India would eventually crowd them out of the market.

Mauritius May Have Found a Production Niche A

lthough total exports from Mauritius declined in 2004 compared to 2003 by 16 percent, there is a silver lining within these figures.

Mauritius is not an LDC AGOA beneficiary of the program. In order to qualify for duty-free treatment, non-LDC beneficiaries must comply with the rules of origin that require that the apparel incorporate yarn spun and/or fabrics formed (knitted or woven) in the United States and/or in an AGOA beneficiary unless they are shipping under special provisions. LDCs beneficiaries receive a blanket exception allowing duty-free entry for apparel assembled in their countries from third country yarns and fabrics.

Mauritius has adhered to three strategies to increase its duty-free exports to the United States. The original impact study would refer to such strategies as being “AGOA smart.”

Mauritius took advantage of a provision in AGOA that exempts from the origin rule, apparel incorporating yarns and fabrics found by the Department of Commerce to be in short supply in the United States. A Mauritius petition was accepted that argued that certain high quality fabrics used in men and boys shirts (containing average yarn count exceeding 135) was in short supply. The result has been that Mauritian companies have been able to ship duty free woven shirts incorporating fabric that does not meet the origin rule. In fact, Mauritius is shipping shirts produced from Chinese yarns woven in China and from such yarn spun in Italy but woven in Mauritius. This short supply provision is available to all AGOA beneficiaries including COMESA members. In 2004, about 22 percent of total Mauritian imports into the United States are estimated to have entered the United States under this provision.

Mauritius also has been able to ship apparel made from locally spun yarns particularly knit polo shirts. Duty-free entry for apparel produced from regional yarns and fabrics is projected to have increased from 13 million SME in AGOA Year 4 to about 15 million SME in AGOA Year 5. About 35 percent of total Mauritian exports to the United States are estimated to have entered the United States duty-free under this provision.

The study observed that Mauritius had lost its only factory spinning yarns for weaving bottomweight fabrics that are incorporated in the manufacture of trousers. Such trousers would no longer meet the origin requirement for AGOA duty-free treatment specifically that fabric is woven from yarns spun in an AGOA beneficiary country. An enterprising foreign investor has now agreed to take over the mill and produce on the island. Once this factory is in operation and its output is incorporated into Mauritian exports, the share of duty-free exports from the Island will increase even more.

Third, Mauritius successfully lobbied to modify AGOA’s LDC provisions. The waning days of the last Congress saw enactment of a bill allowing Mauritius to ship up to five percent of the special TRQ reserved for LDCs shipments of apparel incorporating third country yarns and fabrics. The bill is in effect only for AGOA Year 5 and in practice would allow Mauritius to ship up to 27 million SME of apparel that would otherwise pay full duty. The bill may well be extended for additional years.

Statistics on Mauritian exports to the United States demonstrates the success of this AGOA smart strategy. The shares of duty-free imports in total apparel imports from Mauritius increased from 44 percent to 59 percent during the first eleven months of 2004. When the eleven months of 2004 are projected for the whole year, dutiable imports will have declined by 43 percent in 2004, duty-free imports will have increased by 17 percent.

ITC Not Sanguine About Future of AGOA Apparel Production

The ITC emphasized that of all the regions analyzed in the post-MFA world -- China, other countries in East Asia, South Asia, ASEAN, Mexico, Caribbean Basin, Andean and Middle East, SSA faces the greatest challenge to remain a viable supplier. The ITC concludes that before the MFA expired, US retailers were increasing their purchases under AGOA since they did not have to pay duties on their imports. However, without quotas on non-SSA suppliers, the absence of duties likely would not retain Sub Sahara’s competitive advantage except in cases where import duties are high (man-made fiber.)

In addition to being a high cost producer, the key competitive factors that harm AGOA in comparison with other textile exporters are that AGOA suppliers generally

  • produce basic rather than fashion garments,
  • do not offer full package services,
  • have limited capacity to offer large volumes, and
  • possess inferior logistic and infrastructure compared to other sources.

Other cited factors are the lack of integrated production from cotton-yarn-fabrics-apparel, AGOA LDCs being relatively new suppliers, not being located in proximity to the United States and not having the required managerial and sewing skills to move up to niche production (except of course for Mauritius.)

The ITC report expands on the significance of full package production. Buyers prefer to source from full package providers. Manufacturers in East Asia are best able to carry out the four stages required for full-package production. Full package includes product development, fabric sourcing, cutting, garment sewing, packaging, quality controls, trade, financing, and logistic arrangements. AGOA LDCs usually just cut and sewed garments.

An advantage that accrues to the Caribbean Basin and Mexico from being close to the United States is point of sale replenishment. Manufacturers can ship store-ready products to retailers on the basis of retail point-of-sale data

For Mauritius, the ITC report points out that the challenge facing Mauritius are counteracting high labor costs due to labor shortages and competition from high-tech sectors. However, it does not address the potential of the country’s efforts to enter niche production within categories eligible for AGOA duty-free entry.

Both the ITC report and the impact study emphasize SSA’s wage rate advantages. The 2002 statistics cited in the ITC report show that average hourly wage in apparel industry are $0.33 and $0.38 cents in Madagascar and Kenya respectively. The only countries where hourly wage rates were close to these levels were Indonesia ($0.27), India ($0.38), Bangladesh ($0.39) Pakistan ($0.41) and Sri Lanka ($0.49). Other apparel producers with higher hourly wages but still less than $1.00 per hour are Egypt ($0.77), China ($0.88), Philippines ($0.91, Nicaragua ($0.91) and Colombia ($0.98).4

Mill Production Continues to Lag Apparel Production

The ITC report indicates that most firms in SSA view vertical integration as an important survival factor in the post-MFA world. They noted that the region’s apparel industry is undermined by the limited availability and high cost of regional inputs, compared with countries such as China and India. Regional textile mill production will be particularly important to SSA apparel makers starting in October, 2006 when the tariff rate quota allowing imports of third country fabric will be halved to levels below current exports. By October, 2007 it will be eliminated unless AGOA legislation is modified.

Unfortunately, the ITC report offers no additional reasons to those cited in the impact study to be sanguine about the possibility of regional yarns and fabrics substituting for current usage of third country fabrics. The report observes that although SSA has an important textile fiber base, SSA LDCs lack the manufacturing investment required to use these fibers. The major problem in developing such facilities is the high cost of establishing textile mills in SSA. A standard textile mill with yarn spinning, fabric weaving or knitting and finishing facilities costs about $25 million not including infrastructure investment compared to about $2.5 million for apparel manufacturing. Infrastructure deficiencies add to the cost of production as well. The ITC report cites a company estimates that the cost of standard cotton chino imported from China into Lesotho was $0.58 per square yard compared to $1.57 for identical fabric produced in South Africa.

The ITC report argues that only a small variety of fabrics can be produced in SSA. This is a disadvantage for the region as buyers and fashion dictate the types of fabrics used especially as producers move up-market. The failure of textile to diversify or move up market has serious implications. Once the third country provisions expire, AGOA exporters must incorporate into garments only a narrow range of yarns and fabrics to benefit from duty-free entry.
With the exception of Ethiopian efforts to refurbish its mills and so-called captive investment in Mauritius and Madagascar, there is little activity to develop fabric production in the region. Mauritius is producing knitted fabric, but in insufficient quantities to substitute for third country fabrics currently being used in Mauritian apparel factories.

The ITC report stated that Kenya’s cotton supply fell short of demand and is high priced. Malawi expressed concern that if the AGOA third country fabric provision was not extended for another three years, continued production would be difficult. The report also stated that the leading apparel producer, Tri-Star, in Uganda is sourcing fabrics from Sri Lanka because of concerns about the quality of locally produced components. The company announced last April that it planned to produce domestically. but there is no indication that there will be a switch away from third country components in the near future. The negative projection on textile mill production in the Impact Study appears still to be accurate.

The impact study emphasized the importance to manufacturers in the visited countries of efforts of Ethiopia to upgrade and expand cotton fabric production. Ethiopia is well-positioned to supply its own apparel industry and neighboring producers with high quality cotton yarns and fabrics.

The development of competitive textile mills require more than simply ending preferences for AGOA apparel incorporating third country materials. Withdrawal of duty-free treatment before SSA textile mill production is available would harm the mills since apparel factories would cease production and there would be no demand SSA produced yarns and fabrics. Textile mills will only grow and prosper, if SSA apparel manufacturing remains viable.

Another requirement for building such mills is development assistance focusing on the improvement of the cotton/textile sector from growing, to ginning and cleaning, to spinning to weaving. This involves not only incentivizing improvements in cotton production and establishing world class textile mills but also needs investment in infrastructure particularly power and transportation. There must also be an enabling environment to encourage private sector investment—government-owned plants do not work. Unfortunately, time is growing short.

If provisions allowing AGOA apparel incorporating third country fabrics are extended, they must be extended in a way that provides some incentive to replace third country with regional fabrics and yarns. The extension could accomplish this by including a bonus whereby manufacturers using regional fabrics receive a special allocation for apparel incorporating third country fabrics. Duty-free treatment could be expanded to include access for third country fabrics and made-up goods—a difficult proposition given the political strength of the US textile industry.

Suggestions for Assuring Continued Viability of the Industry

The highest priority is for SSA LDCs to improve productivity through increasing output per manhour. The ITC confirmed the ECA Hub’s emphasis on improving skill levels in the textile and apparel industry. It highlights the importance of upgrading the of sewing machine operators given the increased competition in the post MFA world. It reinforced the need for system engineers by citing various cases where apparel operations were poorly organized. Finally, it mentioned the importance of improved managerial skills specifically middle management.

AGOA suppliers are increasingly resorting to investor friendly measures to promote production. After resisting for a number of years, Madagascar is now remitting value-added taxes to producers, allowing foreigners to purchase land and eliminating import duties on fabrics. Kenyan producers are requesting subsidies to offset high priced power. Direct export subsidies such as those available in Nigeria, are being considered to promote garment manufacturing.

One of the experts contracted for this work believed that there are steps that the United States could take to end this uncertainty and restore confidence in AGOA production.

  • Implement strict safeguards against Chinese exports in the products produced in Africa—low cost pants and knit shirts.

  • Continue efforts to have the Chinese Renminbi revalued by at least 40 percent.

  • Guarantee for the period of AGOA validity, duty-free access for apparel incorporating third country fabrics so as to allow African producers to maximize their competitiveness by procuring yarns and fabrics from the most efficient sources.

  • Encourage textile mill production by allowing shipments of textile mill products specifically yarns, fabrics and made-up goods.

  • Provide technical assistance to assist AGOA producers to upgrade their human skills particularly through upgrading sewing and machine maintenance, enhance managerial performance and improve system engineering.

Trade Legislation in Washington

A challenge to maintaining AGOA’s preferential margins is the continuing spread to other countries of preferential entry into the United States for apparel.

Under a tripartite agreement between Egypt, Israel and the United States, three trade zones were designated as eligible for QIZ benefits, This means that if they contain minimum quantities of Egyptian, Israeli and American inputs, they could ship duty-free to the United States. There is no limit on the amount and no termination date for the program. It is estimated that more than 85 percent of Egyptian apparel exports to the United States will originate in these zones.

Congress is considering legislation—Tariff Relief Assistance for Developing Economies (TRADE) that will provide preferential duty entry to 14non-African LDCs plus Sri Lanka. The bill is modeled after AGOA in that it provides duty-free treatment for apparel produced from third country yarns and/or fabrics. The amount of duty-free treatment is limited to eleven percent of total US imports which is equivalent to the countries’ current level of imports. The bill allows for growth to 14 percent over a ten year period. A separate bill will be considered for Haiti.

However, until the legislative procedures for both these bills are concluded, we will not know whether any of these bills will pass, and the extent of their preferential coverage. To the extent that the final versions of the legislation allow duty-free treatment for imports incorporating third country fabrics, the competitive advantage currently enjoyed by AGOA LDCs will suffer.

The initial impact study commented on the impact on AGOA of free trade agreements awaiting Congressional approval or being negotiated. FTA agreements with Bahrain and the Dominican Republic/Central America are awaiting approval. Although a number of FTAs are currently being negotiated only the agreement with Panama, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru and with Oman and the United Arab Emirate are likely to conclude this year. These agreements will have little impact on AGOA unless they provide access for apparel incorporating third country fabrics.

Continued...
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